The Metrics Behind the Islanders’ Revival

Over the seven seasons leading up to 2014-15 season, the New York Islanders were not just mediocre, they were the NHL’s second-worst team by winning percentage. They boasted the league’s worst goal differential. Those years yielded a grand total of one playoff appearance, a six-game first-round ouster at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2013; more often, the typical Isles season ended with a last-place divisional finish and an early offseason.

To put it more succinctly, they stunk.

This year, though, coach Jack Capuano’s Islanders find themselves leading the Metropolitan Division — three points clear of the Penguins and five ahead of the crosstown rival Rangers, a pair of teams expected to contend for the Eastern Conference crown before the season. The Isles have the NHL’s fourth-best record, and its fifth-best goals per game differential after adjusting for strength of schedule.

Normally, when a team experiences such a meteoric rise, statistical analysis has a tendency to be suspicious. Particularly in a sport like hockey, it can be difficult to distinguish talent from luck, and that normally means we should be hesitant to drastically update our prior expectations — in the Islanders’ case, low expectations based on years of struggle.